\u0130ran-Suud krizi neden \u015fimdi patlak verdi? Bu kavga bir mezhep kavgas\u0131 m\u0131? Suud ve \u0130ran\u2019da neler oluyor? \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Pers r\u00fcyas\u0131na \u015eii d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrler ne cevap veriyor? B\u00f6lgeyi ne gibi tehditler bekliyor. Pers-Arap kavgas\u0131 aras\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ne yapacak? Bu krizin Rusya\u2019ya etkisi ne olacak?<\/p>\n
2016 y\u0131l\u0131na Suud-\u0130ran gerginli\u011fi ve Suriye\u2019nin Madaya beldesindeki a\u00e7l\u0131k \u00f6l\u00fcmlerini belgeleyen foto\u011fraflar ile girdik. Rejim ve Hizbullah militanlar\u0131 ku\u015fatmas\u0131 alt\u0131ndaki Madaya\u2019dan gelen g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler \u00fcmmetin \u00e7aresizli\u011fini ve en utan\u00e7 verici halini g\u00f6steriyordu. Onlarca ki\u015fi a\u00e7l\u0131ktan \u00f6lm\u00fc\u015f ve binlerce insan \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc bekliyordu. Yard\u0131mlar, a\u00e7l\u0131ktan sokak hayvanlar\u0131n\u0131 yiyen insanlara ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lam\u0131yordu. Oradan gelen resimlere bakmamak i\u00e7in kendime engel olmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fsam da yine de bakmak zorunda kal\u0131yordum. Ve sonu\u00e7 insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131mdan utan\u0131yorum ve g\u00f6z ya\u015flar\u0131m\u0131 tutam\u0131yorum. \u015eimdilerde haf\u0131zam\u0131n tamamen hali olmas\u0131n\u0131 ve zihnime hi\u00e7bir \u015feyin gelmemisini umut ediyorum. ABD\u2019nin Irak ve Afganistan i\u015fgalinden sonra, b\u00f6ylesi karelere o kadar \u00e7ok tan\u0131kl\u0131k ettim ki bu y\u0131llar zarf\u0131nda hayat\u0131n manas\u0131n\u0131 bir\u00e7ok kez sorgulamak zorunda kald\u0131m.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
SUUD K\u0130MLER\u0130 N\u0130\u00c7\u0130N \u0130DAM ETT\u0130?<\/p>\n
Suudi Arabistan, 2 Ocak Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 47 ki\u015fiyi idam etti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u0130dam edilenlerden 3\u2019\u00fc \u015eii idi ve aralar\u0131nda \u015eii din adam\u0131 Nimr el-Nimr\u2019de vard\u0131. Nimr, ate\u015fli konu\u015fmalar\u0131 ile hem b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeyi savunuyordu hem de Suud\u2019da y\u00fczde 10 n\u00fcfusa sahip olan \u015eii halk\u0131n\u0131 ayakland\u0131rmakla su\u00e7lan\u0131yordu. Nimr, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki g\u00f6steriler sonras\u0131nda tutuklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Di\u011fer 43 ki\u015fi ise ter\u00f6r eylemlerine kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131 ve el-Kaide ile DAE\u015e ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131 gerek\u00e7esi idam edilmi\u015flerdi. \u0130dam edilenlerin hemen hemen t\u00fcm\u00fc Suud vatanda\u015f\u0131yd\u0131. Suudi Arabistan, el-Kaide\u2019nin \u00fclkedeki lideri Faris e\u015f-\u015euveyli ez-Zahrani ve di\u011fer ba\u011fl\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 2004 y\u0131l\u0131nda tutuklam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Zahrani, Suud\u2019un arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 en tehlikeli insanlar listesinde idi.<\/p>\n
Bu kararlar\u0131 ile Suud asl\u0131nda, 1980 y\u0131l\u0131nda Cuheyman el-Uteybi taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen Mekke bask\u0131n\u0131ndan sonra ilk kez bu kadar S\u00fcnniyi idam ediyordu. Ayr\u0131ca, \u0130nsan Haklar\u0131 \u0130zleme (HRW) \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc de Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n cihadi eylemlere kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gerek\u00e7esiyle 2013\u2019te DAE\u015e\u2019in ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 sonucu ilk kez vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 idam etti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu iki ger\u00e7ek bize, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 S\u00fcnni silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n Suudi Arabistan i\u00e7in \u015eii muhalefetten daha \u00e7ok tehdit olu\u015fturdu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, olay\u0131 iyi analiz etti\u011fimizde Suud\u2019un, hakikatte el-Kaide lideri Faris ez-Zahrani ve adamlar\u0131n\u0131 idam ederken a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 muhafazakar \u00e7evrelerden gelecek \u201ckrall\u0131k ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 \u015fiilere ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131lara dokunmuyor, s\u00fcnnileri idam ediyor\u201d ele\u015ftirilerine maruz kalmamak i\u00e7in de 3 \u015eii\u2019yi idam etti\u011fi ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Suud\u2019un apar topar bu karar\u0131 almas\u0131nda 26 Aral\u0131k\u2019ta DAE\u015e ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc lideri Ebubekir Ba\u011fdadi\u2019nin \u201cTer\u00f6re Kar\u0131\u015f \u0130slam \u0130ttifak\u0131\u201dn\u0131 kuran Suud\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 isyan \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu ses kayd\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131 etkin rol oynuyor ve Suud\u2019un bu ses kaydi sonras\u0131 cihadc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Riyad y\u00f6netimi, uzun s\u00fcredir, Suriye ve Irak\u2019a giden ve DAE\u015e\u2019e kat\u0131lan vatanda\u015flar\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ciddi bir g\u00fcvenlik tehdidi ile y\u00fcz y\u00fcze oldu\u011funu dile getiriyordu. \u00dclke i\u00e7inde son y\u0131llarda \u015eii camilere ve g\u00fcvenlik merkezlerine y\u00f6nelik bir\u00e7ok sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenlenmi\u015fti. Suudi y\u00f6netimi, bu olaylar sonras\u0131 DAE\u015e ve el-Kaide yanl\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fczlerce ki\u015fiyi tutuklad\u0131. Tutuklamalar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu internet \u00fczerindeki yaz\u0131\u015fmalardan elde edilen bulgular \u00fczerinden olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Suud y\u00f6netimi, g\u00fcvenlik sebepleri nedeniyle 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda Suriye\u2019de \u201ccihada\u201d kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 su\u00e7 olarak kabul etti. Suud m\u00fcft\u00fcs\u00fc de, \u201cSuriye\u2019de cihada gidenleri \u015fehadet de\u011fil b\u00fcy\u00fck bir y\u0131k\u0131m bekliyor\u201d diye a\u00e7\u0131klamada bulundu. Fakat Suud\u2019un att\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcm bu ad\u0131mlar DAE\u015e ve el-Kaide\u2019ye kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 engellememi\u015f olmal\u0131 ki, Ocak ba\u015f\u0131nda onlarca ki\u015fi k\u0131l\u0131\u00e7tan ge\u00e7irilip, kur\u015funa dizilerek idam edildi. Burada ince hesaplar\u0131n yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok iyi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u0130RAN NEDEN BU KADAR SES \u00c7IKARDI?<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, her y\u0131l y\u00fczlerce ki\u015fiyi siyasi nedenlerle ve \u00f6zellikle baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 da Suudi Arabistan lehine \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmakla itham edip idama mahkum ediyor. \u0130dam edilenlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu K\u00fcrtler, Beluclar, Ahvazl\u0131lar ve Azeriler olu\u015fturuyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir meydanda halk\u0131n ve medyan\u0131n huzurunda idam edilenlerin resimleri her ay d\u00fcnya medyas\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bunlar\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00f6n\u00fcne getiren uzmanlar, \u201c\u0130ran, idamlardan dolay\u0131 \u015fikayette bulunacak en son devlettir\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda bulunuyor. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019daki, Banglade\u015f\u2019teki idamlara, Suriye\u2019deki mezalime ve hatta \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclen Hizbullah lideri Semir Kantar i\u00e7in bu kadar y\u00fcksek ses \u00e7\u0131karmayan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n da ince hesaplar pe\u015finde oldu\u011fu \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde m\u00fclahaza ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Uzmanlar, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 3 \u015eii\u2019nin idam\u0131na diplomatik s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 a\u015farak bu kadar sert tepki vermesini, son y\u0131llarda Suriye ve Irak\u2019taki uygulamalar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 kendisinden rahats\u0131z olan \u015eiileri etraf\u0131na kenetlemek i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorumunda bulunuyor. Ayr\u0131ca b\u00f6lge halklar\u0131 nezdinde kaybetti\u011fi kamuoyunu yeniden kazanma giri\u015fimi i\u00e7in bir hamle oldu\u011fu analizinde bulunuyor. Buna ek olarak, \u0130ran\u2019da 26 \u015eubat\u2019ta d\u00fczenlenecek Uzmanlar Meclisi (Hubregan) ve 10. d\u00f6nem milletvekili se\u00e7imleri muhafazakarlar ve reformcular aras\u0131nda bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bundan dolay\u0131 muhafazakarlar\u0131n bu gerginli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcterek se\u00e7imlerde g\u00fc\u00e7 elde etmek istidi\u011fi de ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Suud-\u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin tarihi, 1979 \u0130ran Devrimi\u2019nin oldu\u011fu y\u0131llara kadar uzan\u0131yor. \u0130ran-Irak Sava\u015f\u0131 bu gerilimi besleyen en b\u00fcy\u00fck olaylardan biri idi. \u0130ran, o d\u00f6nemde, Suud\u2019u Saddam H\u00fcseyin\u2019e destek vermek ile su\u00e7lam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130ki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki kriz, son y\u0131llarda, Suud\u2019un 2011\u2019de Bahreyn\u2019deki g\u00f6sterilere askeri m\u00fcdahalesi, Suriye\u2019deki sava\u015f, L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki siyasi kriz ve Eyl\u00fcl 2015 Hacc\u0131\u2019nda Mina\u2019daki izdihamda y\u00fczlerce \u0130ranl\u0131 hac\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc dolay\u0131sla daha da t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Hakikatte, uzmanlar iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki halihaz\u0131rdaki krizi son 30 y\u0131l\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc a\u015famas\u0131 olarak okuyorlar. Daha \u00f6nce iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki kriz bu dereceye varmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 deniliyor.<\/p>\n
Tahran ve Me\u015fhed\u2019deki Suudi Arabistan el\u00e7iliklerinin yak\u0131lmas\u0131, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki diplomatik ili\u015fkilerin kesilmesi ve sava\u015f naralar\u0131n\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131 olay\u0131n ciddiyetini g\u00f6stermeye yetiyor. Fakat iki devlet aras\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n tarihine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda burada daha \u00f6te bir s\u00fcrprizin olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n burada yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck hatalardan bir tanesi, her krizde oldu\u011fu gibi diplomatik temsilciliklere ve diplomatik misyon mensuplar\u0131na sald\u0131rmas\u0131yd\u0131. D\u00fcnya devletleri aras\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bu konudaki sicili de zaten hi\u00e7 parlak de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
B\u00d6LGEDE SO\u011eUK SAVA\u015e YILLARINA D\u00d6N\u00dc\u015e<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm bunlar g\u00f6steriyor ki, Suud ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilim biraz daha artarak \u201cso\u011fuk sava\u015f\u201d taktikleri ile t\u0131rmanmaya devam edecek. \u0130ki devletin, Suriye ve Yemen\u2019deki m\u00fcttefiklerine destekleri artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 ve bunun da vekalet sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ve mezhep gerilimini artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 inkar edilemez bir ger\u00e7ek.<\/p>\n
Co\u011frafyam\u0131zda son y\u0131llarda b\u00f6lgesel bir kavgan\u0131n oldu\u011fu bariz bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi, \u0130ran\u2019n\u0131n Bat\u0131 ile n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakereleri, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 giri\u015fimleri, Tahran\u2019\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 arenaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve bat\u0131l\u0131 bakanlar\u0131n s\u0131k aral\u0131klarla \u0130ran\u2019a artan ziyaretleri ve Suriye g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde iki \u00fclkenin kar\u015f\u0131 masalarda olu\u015fu bu kavgan\u0131n di\u011fer bir \u00e7ehresini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu geli\u015fmeler ayr\u0131ca bize, ger\u00e7ekte siyasi olan kavgan\u0131n, b\u00f6lgesel ve yerel alanda mezhebi kavgay\u0131 tetikleyece\u011fini ve iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerinde uzun s\u00fcre donuk s\u00fcrece\u011finin i\u015faretini veriyor.<\/p>\n
Sorun \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgede rol almas\u0131 de\u011fil. Onurlu bir \u015fekilde elbette rol almas\u0131 onun da hakk\u0131. Ancak y\u0131llard\u0131r izledi\u011fi mezhebi politikalar dolay\u0131s\u0131yla y\u0131pratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 co\u011frafyam\u0131zda mezhebi kullanarak b\u00f6lge halk\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131y\u0131m\u0131na i\u015ftirak etmesi ve diktat\u00f6rlerden yana tav\u0131r olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc bir tablonun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131s\u0131ra \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n emellerine hizmet etti\u011fini de g\u00f6steriyor. Irakl\u0131 \u00fcnl\u00fc \u015eii alim merhum Seyyid Mehdi el-Hekim, \u201cSaddam her \u015feyde zalim idi. Fakat zulm\u00fcn\u00fc ortak da\u011f\u0131tmakta adildi\u201d diyordu. Saddam, \u015eii, S\u00fcnni ve K\u00fcrt demeden herkese zulmediyordu. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, diktat\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn ve zulm\u00fcn dini yoktur. Irakl\u0131 \u00fcnl\u00fc \u015eii edebiyat\u00e7\u0131 Ahmed el-Muhna, \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor: \u201cSaddam zulm\u00fcn\u00fc herkese e\u015fit da\u011f\u0131t\u0131yordu, fakat bug\u00fcn benim mezhebime ba\u011fl\u0131 olanlar, \u015eiileri hem Yahudile\u015ftirip gettolara mahkum ediyor hem de zulm\u00fc bir grup ekseninde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u0130RAN B\u00d6LGEDE NE YAPMAYA \u00c7ALI\u015eIYOR?<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgede ve hatta \u0130slam co\u011frafyas\u0131nda ne yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in Afganistan ve Irak i\u015fgali d\u00f6nemlerine, Irak\u2019ta 2007 sonras\u0131nda olu\u015fan politikalara ve Suriye\u2019de ortak oldu\u011fu mezalime d\u00f6n\u00fcp bakmam\u0131z gerekiyor.\u00a0 Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u0130ran as\u0131ll\u0131 Amerikal\u0131, Beyaz Saray\u2019da ve ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019nda dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k yapm\u0131\u015f olan Vali Nasr\u2019\u0131n 2006 y\u0131l\u0131nda kavramla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201c\u015eii Uyan\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d kitab\u0131na bakmak gerekiyor.\u00a0 Ayr\u0131ca son 15 y\u0131lda, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kendi alan\u0131n\u0131 giderek geni\u015fletmesiyle beraber b\u00f6lgede ciddi tedirginlikler yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmemiz gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Irak i\u015fgali sonras\u0131 ABD, b\u00f6lgeden \u00e7ekilirken de d\u00fc\u015fman(!) ilan etti\u011fi \u0130ran\u2019a Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131 teslim etmi\u015fti. \u0130\u015fgal, talan ve tecav\u00fcz edilen Irak, mezhep \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in Bat\u0131\u2019ya laz\u0131m olan \u0130ran\u2019a alt\u0131n tepside sunuldu. Bug\u00fcn Irak, art\u0131k ikinci bir \u0130ran\u2019d\u0131r. Nitekim ABD\u2019nin Irak\u2019\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na koydu\u011fu Maliki y\u00f6netimi, her alanda \u0130ran\u2019la i\u015fbirli\u011fi i\u00e7inde y\u00fcr\u00fcmekteydi. Yine Afganistan\u2019a m\u00fcdahale eden Bat\u0131, orada y\u00fczde 9\u2019larda olan \u015eii Hazaralar\u0131 devletin kilidi konumuna getirmi\u015fti. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Esed\u2019e destek i\u00e7in Suriye halk\u0131n\u0131n katliam\u0131na m\u00fcdahil olmas\u0131 ve Yemen\u2019de Husilere verdi\u011fi destek ile b\u00f6lgede dengeleri alt \u00fcst etti. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fta L\u00fcbnan olmak \u00fczere \u0130slam co\u011frafyas\u0131n\u0131n bir\u00e7ok \u201cMukavama\/Direni\u015f\u201d ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, b\u00f6lgede hem mezhep\u00e7ili\u011fi hortlatt\u0131 hem de i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131n temellerini att\u0131. Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201c\u0130slam\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 \u0130slam\u201d ile yapmak istedi\u011fi tam da buydu. Yani \u015eii-S\u00fcnni yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131yla iki \u0130slam\u2019\u0131 vuru\u015fturmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yorlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler, s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde ya\u015fayan M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar\u0131n \u015eia\u2019ya y\u00f6nelmesini, S\u00fcnni \u0130slam\u2019da kalmalar\u0131na tercih ediyor. S\u00fcnni M\u00fcsl\u00fcman n\u00fcfusa sahip \u00c7in, Rusya, hatta Hindistan dahi bu y\u00f6ntemi uyguluyor. M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 co\u011frafyalar\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n etkisine a\u00e7\u0131yorlar. \u0130ran\u2019a d\u00fc\u015fman alg\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturan ABD ve Bat\u0131 ise i\u015fgal etti\u011fi \u00fclkeleri, topraklar\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019a terk ediyor. Irak\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran terkiyle ve Suriye\u2019de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Esed ile birlikte yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 katliamlara sessiz kal\u0131narak Arap-\u0130slam co\u011frafyas\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131na bir \u015eii kitle konarak mezhep gerilim zirveye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bunu f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6ren \u0130ran da kadim Pers imparatorlu\u011funun r\u00fcyas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
PERSLER\u0130N VE \u015eAH \u0130SMA\u0130L\u2019\u0130N R\u00dcYASI<\/p>\n
\u0130ran yeniden Perslerin ve \u015eah \u0130smail\u2019in yay\u0131lmac\u0131 r\u00fcyas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Pers imparatorlu\u011fu Anadolu\u2019dan Suriye ve Yemen\u2019e, Kafkaslardan Afganistan\u2019a kadar etkili b\u00fcy\u00fck bir g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fc. Persler, bu b\u00f6lgeleri kendi g\u00fcc\u00fc ve tabii hinterland\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Perslerden y\u0131llar sonra \u015eah \u0130smail benzeri r\u00fcyaya kap\u0131ld\u0131 ve bu hinterland ele ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 \u015eiile\u015ftirdi ve siyasi hedefleri i\u00e7in bu \u015eiileri kullanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ran co\u011frafyas\u0131 hakikatte Sel\u00e7uklular\u0131n co\u011frafyas\u0131yd\u0131, S\u00fcnni T\u00fcrklerin hakimiyetindeydi. Osmanl\u0131 devletine kar\u015f\u0131 bir cephe a\u00e7mak isteyen Safeviler \u015eiili\u011fi se\u00e7erek, o\u011fuz boyundan T\u00fcrkmenleri, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc Azerilerin dedelerini \u015eiile\u015ftirdi. \u0130ran, Orta Asya ile Osmanl\u0131 aras\u0131nda bir bariyer oldu. Orta Asya ile Osmanl\u0131\u2019n\u0131n siyasi, k\u00fclt\u00fcrel ba\u011flar\u0131 koptu. Osmanl\u0131, Rus ilerle\u015fiyi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Asya\u2019daki M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar\u0131n yard\u0131m\u0131na bu bariyerden dolay\u0131 gidemedi. \u015eah \u0130smail\u2019in Anadolu \u00fczerinden Suriye ve oradan Akdeniz\u2019e inme r\u00fcyas\u0131n\u0131 ise Yavuz Sultan Selim engelledi. \u0130ranl\u0131 \u00fcnl\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr Ali \u015eeriati, \u015eah \u0130smail bu r\u00fcyaya kap\u0131lmasayd\u0131, Osmanl\u0131 bat\u0131y\u0131 M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131 diyordu.<\/p>\n
\u015eah \u0130smail\u2019in r\u00fcyas\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fckten sonra 500 y\u0131l \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 rahat bir nefes ald\u0131. Hatta Nadir \u015eah d\u00f6neminde \u015eii-S\u00fcnni yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u0130ran ve Osmanl\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli ad\u0131mlar at\u0131ld\u0131. Ta ki \u0130ran devrimine kadar. Hatta \u0130ran devrimi \u00f6ncesi Suud y\u00f6netiminin \u015eiilerle ili\u015fkileri iyiydi ve Avrupa\u2019da okuyan bir\u00e7ok \u015eii, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n bursuyla okumu\u015ftu. Bunlar aras\u0131nda bug\u00fcn Irak\u2019ta bakan olmu\u015f \u015eiiler de var.<\/p>\n
Bat\u0131, Rusya, \u00c7in ve Hindistan \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131na bir \u015eii tampon b\u00f6lgesinin kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 istemekte. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu co\u011frafyan\u0131n kendi i\u00e7 meseleleri \u00fczerine bo\u011fu\u015fmas\u0131 onlar\u0131n da bu co\u011frafyay\u0131 istedi\u011fi gibi s\u00f6m\u00fcrmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. Perslerin yeniden \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve Irak\u2019\u0131n onlara alt\u0131n tepside sunulmas\u0131n\u0131n gerisinde Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n dile getirdi\u011fi bu bariyer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 500 y\u0131l sonra g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015eah \u0130smail\u2019in r\u00fcyas\u0131 yatmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u015e\u0130\u0130LER PERS R\u00dcYASINA NASIL BAKIYOR?<\/p>\n
Do\u011frusu bir\u00e7ok \u015eii , Pers r\u00fcyas\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fine d\u00fc\u015fen, Irak\u2019ta ve Suriye\u2019de bu co\u011frafyan\u0131n \u00e7ocuklar\u0131n\u0131 katleden \u0130ran\u2019a ciddi tepki g\u00f6steriyor. Fakat, \u0130ran suikastler ve bask\u0131 ile son y\u0131llarda bir\u00e7ok \u015eii d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr ve alimi susturdu. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n y\u0131ld\u0131rma politikalar\u0131 ra\u011fmen cesurca konu\u015fmaya devam \u015eii d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr ve alimlerin say\u0131s\u0131da az\u0131msanacak kadar az de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda hayata veda eden \u00fcnl\u00fc L\u00fcbnanl\u0131 \u015eii alim Hani Fahs, 1515 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u015eah \u0130smail\u2019in b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerden yay\u0131lmac\u0131l\u0131k siyasetini ayn\u0131 y\u00f6ntem ile s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek isteyen \u0130ran\u2019a sert tepki verenlerdendi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u015eah \u0130smail ve Pers r\u00fcyas\u0131na kap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015eiilere \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck zarar verdi\u011fini belirten merhum Fahs, \u201c\u015eah \u0130smail\u2019den sonra \u015eiiler bu co\u011frafyaya 500 y\u0131lda zor uyum sa\u011flad\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ayn\u0131 r\u00fcyas\u0131 y\u00fcz\u00fcnden 500 y\u0131l daha kaybetmek istemiyoruz\u201d demi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Irakl\u0131 \u00fcnl\u00fc \u015eii d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr Ahmed el-Muhna da, \u201cmezhebimin mensuplar\u0131 Irak\u2019ta, L\u00fcbnan\u2019da ve daha bir\u00e7ok yerde iktidar olmadan \u00f6nce veya g\u00fcce kavu\u015fmadan \u00f6nce t\u00fcm Arap ve \u0130slam co\u011frafyas\u0131nda edebi, siyasi ve toplumsal hareketler aras\u0131nda \u015eiiler vard\u0131. Hatta solcu, milliyet\u00e7i ve demokratik hareketler i\u00e7erisinde bile. 2005 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar Irak\u2019ta \u015eiiler mazlumdu. L\u00fcbnan Hizbullah\u2019\u0131 t\u00fcm \u0130slam aleminde el \u00fcst\u00fcnda tutuluyordu ve hatta \u00fcnl\u00fc bat\u0131l\u0131 filozof Michel Foucault bile devrimimize sempati duymu\u015ftu. Fakat \u201cSo\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u201d\u0131n bir aleti haline getirildik\u201d diyor. Yahudilerin ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131 uzlet gibi \u015eiiler de bir uzlete mahkum ediliyor diyen Muhna, geleneksel mazlumiyet teorimiz art\u0131k kimsenin umurunda de\u011fil \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc art\u0131k herkes bizden nefret ediyor. Suriye, Irak ve Yemen\u2019de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 oyunlardan dolay\u0131 bu kez zalim, mazlum taifenin i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u201d diye feryat ediyor.<\/p>\n
Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n kurucusu Suphi Tufeyli, L\u00fcbnanl\u0131 \u015eii alim Ali el-Emin gibi daha bir\u00e7ok ki\u015fi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Pers r\u00fcyas\u0131na sert tepki veriyor.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
PERS-ARAP KR\u0130Z\u0130N\u0130N RE\u00c7ETES\u0130 T\u00dcRK\u0130YE<\/p>\n
Pers-Arap kavgas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00f6kleri \u00e7ok derindir ve ayr\u0131ca \u015eii-S\u00fcnni mezheb kavgas\u0131n\u0131n da. Bu co\u011frafyada bu kavgay\u0131 engelleyebilecek tek \u00fclke T\u00fcrkiye\u2019dir. Son Tahran-Riyad gerilimi tamamen siyasidir. Suud, milli g\u00fcvenli\u011fi tehlikede oldu\u011fu gerek\u00e7esiyle 47 ki\u015fiyi idam etti\u011fini ilan etti. B\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 olmak i\u00e7in \u00e7abalayan \u0130ran da kaybetti\u011fi kamuoyunu yeniden kazanmak i\u00e7in bir m\u00fccadele veriyor. \u0130ran, Arap \u015eiileri hem Suudi Arabistan\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 hem de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 kullanmak istiyor.<\/p>\n
Son y\u0131llarda Irakl\u0131 s\u00fcnniler yaln\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131 ve bug\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hamileri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc DAE\u015e\u2019e mahkum edildiler. Suriye\u2019de 6 y\u0131ld\u0131r devam eden zulme bug\u00fcne de\u011fin hem \u0130slam alemi hem de Bat\u0131 sessiz kald\u0131. Suud, bug\u00fcn Suriye\u2019de \u0130ran\u2019a cevap vermeye kendini zorunlu g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye Pers-Arap krizini \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in Suriye\u2019deki siyasi muhalif kanada deste\u011fini daha \u00e7ok artt\u0131rmal\u0131 ve mezhebi t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmeli. \u0130ran\u2019a son y\u0131llarda izledi\u011fi mezheb eksenli politkalar\u0131n\u0131n S\u00fcnni sokaklar\u0131 rahats\u0131z etti\u011fini \u00e7ok iyi a\u00e7\u0131klamal\u0131. Sudan ve Nijerya\u2019dan, Endonezya ve Malezya\u2019ya \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 son y\u0131llarda resmen \u0130ran\u2019a isyan ediyor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bunu g\u00f6rmesi ve bu hendekten \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilecek tek \u00fclke de T\u00fcrkiye. T\u00fcrkiye ayn\u0131 zamanda Suudi Arabistan\u2019a Arap \u015eiileri de kapsayacak bir siyaset g\u00fctmesi i\u00e7in destek vermeli. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yeni yol haritas\u0131 ile Rusya\u2019dan K\u00fcrt kart\u0131n\u0131 geri almal\u0131.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
RUSYA SUR\u0130YE\u2019DE B\u0130R BATAKLIKTA<\/p>\n
Tahran-Riyad gerginli\u011fi en \u00e7ok Rusya\u2019y\u0131 endi\u015felendiriyor. Ki bundan dolay\u0131 Rusya hemen arabuluculuk i\u00e7in aday oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Rusya bug\u00fcn S\u00fcnni d\u00fcnya ve \u015eii d\u00fcnyas\u0131 aras\u0131nda yol ay\u0131r\u0131m\u0131nda. Rusya, Suud-T\u00fcrkiye yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 da S\u00fcnni ittifak\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi olarak okuyor. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Asya\u2019daki bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke ile ili\u015fkileri hem Tahran\u2019\u0131 hem de Moskova\u2019y\u0131 korkutuyor. Suud, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nde Yemen i\u00e7in lehine verdi\u011fi deste\u011fi kaybetmemek ad\u0131na Yemen\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atabilir.<\/p>\n
Rusya b\u00fct\u00e7esi, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in, bir varil petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 50 dolar olarak belirledi. 36 dolar civar\u0131nda olan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselmez ve bu seyirde devam ederse Rusya bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde ekonomik krizle bo\u011fu\u015fmak zorunda kalabilir ve Suriye\u2019deki askeri harcamalar Moskova\u2019ya \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r gelebilir. \u0130ran-Suud krizi Suriye\u2019ye yans\u0131r ise Rusya bu kez hakiki manada tercih yapmak zorunda kalacak ki bu da onun i\u00e7in \u00e7ok zor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Arap ve \u0130slam aleminin t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc kaybetmekle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran b\u00f6lgede yeni bir sava\u015f\u0131 kald\u0131racak g\u00fc\u00e7te de\u011fil. Hem ekonomik olarak hem de askeri. Her ne kadar askeri \u015fovlar yapsa da hem u\u00e7ak f\u00fczeleri yeterli de\u011fil hem de hava savunma sistemleri yok. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 en \u00e7ok korkutan ise bu b\u00f6lgesel krizin i\u00e7 siyasete yans\u0131mas\u0131. Bunun da \u0130ran i\u00e7in ciddi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olacak. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dini lideri Hamaney de hasta oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in Muhafazakarlar da onun yerini alacak bir isim \u00fczerinde hen\u00fcz uzla\u015fm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Reformcular, Suudi Arabistan ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir yol izleyebilir. Fakat ona da \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 m\u00fcsade etmiyor. Reformcu bir\u00e7ok lider 6 y\u0131ld\u0131r halen ev hapsinde.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile Arap alemi aras\u0131nda kalan Rusya, yeniden \u0130slam alemine ve S\u00fcnni d\u00fcnyaya yak\u0131nla\u015fmak i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye ile ili\u015fkilerini g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmek zorunda kalacak ki, zaten ekonomik sinyaller bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi \u00e7oktan zorunlu k\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u0130ran-Suud krizi neden \u015fimdi patlak verdi? Bu kavga bir mezhep kavgas\u0131 m\u0131? Suud ve \u0130ran\u2019da neler oluyor? \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Pers r\u00fcyas\u0131na […]","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":210,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hariciyye","category-yazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/turankislakci.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/turankislakci.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/turankislakci.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/turankislakci.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/turankislakci.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=209"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/turankislakci.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":265,"href":"https:\/\/turankislakci.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209\/revisions\/265"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/turankislakci.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/210"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/turankislakci.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=209"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/turankislakci.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=209"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/turankislakci.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=209"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}